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Prediction for CME (2015-12-28T12:39:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-12-28T12:39Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/9936/-1
CME Note: CME is associated with a M1.8 class flare from AR 2473.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-12-31T00:02Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-12-30T10:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note: 
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2015 Dec 29 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 29-Dec 31 2015 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 29-Dec 31 2015

            Dec 29     Dec 30     Dec 31
00-03UT        3          3          5 (G1)
03-06UT        3          3          4     
06-09UT        2          2          4     
09-12UT        2          2          4     
12-15UT        2          4          3     
15-18UT        2          6 (G2)     3     
18-21UT        2          5 (G1)     3     
21-00UT        3          5 (G1)     4     

Rationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain below G1-Minor
storm levels for day one (29 Dec) and into the first part of day two (30
Dec). Mid to late on day two should see the arrival of the 28 Dec CME
bringing major storming (G2-Moderate) levels with it. Day three (31 Dec)
should see minor storm (G1-Minor) levels early in the day before waning
CME effects return the Earths magnetic field to below G1-Minor levels.
Lead Time: 50.80 hour(s)
Difference: 14.03 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2015-12-28T21:14Z
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